The Logic of Failure

In The Logic of Failure, Dietrich Dörner identifies the roots of catastrophe, the small, perfectly sensible steps that sets the stage for disaster. In incisive analysis of real-life situations and often hilarious computer simulations he helps all those involved in any kind of strategic planning recognize and avoid such logical yet devastating errors.

1. Some Examples
• The Lamentable Fate of Tanaland
• The Not-Quite-So-Lamentable Fate of Greenvale
• Chernobyl in Tanaland
2. The Demands
• Complexity
• Dynamics
• Intransparence
• Ignorance and Mistaken Hypotheses
• Steps in Planning and Action
3. Setting Goals
• Requirements of Goal Setting
• General Goals and Repair Service" Behavior
• Liberty, Equality, and "Voluntary Conscription"
4. Information and Models
• Reality, Models, and Information
• Solving Problems One at a Time
• "It's the Environment"
• Prime numbers and Tourist Traffic, or Moltke and Forest Fires
• The Pale Cast of Thought
5. Time Sequences
• Time and Space
• Lily Pads, Grains of Rice, and AIDS
• A Premature All Clear?
• Laymen and Experts
• "Twenty-eight Is a Good Number"
• Predators and Prey
• The Moths of Kuera
6. Planning
• "Go Make Yourself a Plan …
• Rumpelstiltskin
• Learn by Making Mistakes? Not Necessarily!
7. So What Do We Do?

A very good walkthrough of why people (especially managers) act illogically. Worth reading, as it gives a new concept after groupthink.